Government and journalists tell us regularly that there will not be enough people in jobs to pay for the costs of demographic change, such as pensions, unless immigration is increased substantially.

Instinctively, we sense a put-up job, and suspect the government has just latched onto this theory because it's a convenient justification for its failure to control Britain's borders.

After all, such is the appalling logic of the claim that it ignores the fact that immigrants age too, and such a theory creates a vicious circle where more and more immigrants are going to be needed to pay the pensions for more and more immigrants!

We stress that the Age Concern report we highlight here, does not mention immigration. The purpose of the report by Andrew Harrop, its Employment Policy Officer, is to highlight the present value to the economy of people between the ages of 50-69, both in an employed and unpaid capacity, and to show how this economic value could be increased further.

In so doing, it demonstrates that any economic problems resulting from a demographic imbalance could be resolved merely by slightly increasing the numbers in employment in the 50-69 age group over the course of 20 years or so.

At present, the charity estimates that between 430,000 and 1 million people aged 50-69 can be considered potential additional workers, depending on whether a "cautious" or "optimistic" model is used. If these people were in employment it would add between £12.4 billion and £29.7 billion to annual economic output.

In 2001, 6.7 million people over 50 were in paid work in the UK. In 2003 there were 20 million people over 50; by 2021 this will rise to almost 25 million.

The report states that by 2021 there will be a million and a half more people aged 50-69 and almost a million fewer people aged 16-49. The total population will grow by 3.3 million.

In such a case, labour market expansion will make almost no contribution to economic growth.

However, the report states that if the number of workers aged 16-49 remains unchanged and the employment rate for people aged 50-69 increases by just 0.35% each year, then by 2021, economic output could be £63 billion higher annually than if employment rates remained static.

This would require, by 2021, an extra 700,000 to 1 million workers aged 50-69, from an unpaid pool of 7.3 million.

This is compared to a situation where the employment rate for older people remained at 2003 levels, and is similar to the optimistic estimate for the number of potential older workers available today.

In other words, if by 2021 we have been able to encourage between one-in-ten and one-in-seven otherwise unpaid 50-69 year olds in the UK to take paid employment, then we can more than pay for the costs of demographic change.

Age Concern says that this can be done by improving opportunities for older people to work. There is no need to raise the State Pension Age or restrict access to sickness and disability benefits.

It has 12 recommendations:
1. The Government should develop a strategy for supporting and valuing older people's paid and unpaid contributions.
2. Mandatory Retirement Ages should be illegal.
3. Age discrimination legislation should be robustly enforced and free from loop-holes.
4. The Government should provide coherent, personalised support to everyone out of work.
5. The Department for Education and Skills should review age discrimination in learning.
6. Policies are needed to help older people with health needs remain in work.
7. Older people should have the ability to retire flexibly.
8. Carers should have equivalent employment rights to those of parents.
9. Carers should have improved access to pensions.
10. Enhanced Welfare to Work support should be available to all former carers.
11. Support for grandparent care should be considered as part of the Treasury's Childcare Review.
12. Age discrimination in volunteering should be illegal.

As this report indicates, any economic challenges faced by demographic change can be offset by advantaging those older British citizens who want to return to paid employment.

It's not necessary to import people from all over the world.

The report is entitled The economy and older people by Andrew Harrop (February 2004). Free download at www.ageconcern.org.uk/AgeConcern/media/0758_economy_and_older_people.pdf
or from the Policy Unit, Age Concern, Astral House, 1268 London Rd, London, SW16 4ER; 020 8765 7200. Harrop's report is based on another more involved report by Pamela Meadows called The economic contribution of older people (February 2004), which is available for £10 payable to Age Concern at the above address. However, we recommend Harrop's report as more easily digestible and usable.